Google continues to phase in AI-powered search and AI-centric SERPs. It’s doing so despite the disruption to its core business. But the question is the optimal pace of that rollout, considering user acclimation, demand, and revenue. Evidence points to that rollout happening faster than we thought.
Specifically, AI-powered search is on pace to soon eclipse traditional search in terms of how it’s presented to users as the primary way to find answers. According to Similarweb, AI Overviews have grown in SERP appearances from 15 percent to 43 percent over the past year alone.
During the same period, monthly AI Mode activations grew from 126 million to 279 million. This stands to reason as AI Overviews often spark AI-Mode conversations. The two are increasingly coupled as Google is intent on funneling users into AI Mode to reveal “conversational intent” (more on that in a bit).
And it’s working, considering the usage data above. But on deeper levels, Google is also conditioning users to reveal their conversational intent. Similarweb reports that the average length of Google searches has grown. We’ve seen similar evidence from SOCi, showing a nearly 6x increase in query lengths.
Where the Battle Will be Fought
Backing up, what are we talking about here. Google’s primary user-facing AI search mechanisms so far are AI Overviews and AI Mode. The former are full-sentence answers to questions you see at the top of your SERPs, and the latter lets you ask follow up questions. The two are increasingly infused, as noted.
The fact that these search modalities may soon outnumber traditional ones, doesn’t come as a surprise. Google telegraphed this direction at Google I/O in May with moves that position AI Mode and AI overviews as the new default UX. Google called it the biggest transformation of search in 25 years.
But it’s not stopping there. At I/O, it also previewed its Intelligent Search Box. Using Gemini Flash, it will use natural language search queries as a springboard to “information agents” to gather information on a user’s behalf. This brings search from links and answers to proactive agents that work in the background.
One way Google frames this is that users will be able to build personalized mini-apps. These apps can do things like search for a new apartment with particular specs, or monitor stock market activity for particular signals. These agentic flavors of search are where the battle will soon be fought.
Quality versus Quantity
Back to the part about disrupting itself, Google faces a classic innovator’s dilemma when it comes to AI. It knows AI and natural-language queries are the future of search, and that it needs to wage the land battle for user engagement with the likes of ChatGPT. But doing so upends its business model.
Common wisdom states that when there’s one question and one answer in a conversational AI interaction, there isn’t room for Google’s 10-blue links and a handful of sponsored ones. This means that the quantity of Google’s ad inventory – a foundational factor in its revenue generation – is depleted.
Google’s answer to that dilemma is to offset quantity declines with quality gains. And this all comes down to what we call conversational intent. Google’s ability to infer intent – another foundational piece of its business – is elevated when it moves from “caveman-speak” keyword search to natural language.
Beyond the levels of intent-revealing nuance in full sentences, AI Mode opens the door for several sentences – a back & forth dialogue to reveal exactly what a given user wants. This mitigates ad-inventory declines, while quality gains (inference) mean higher premiums on sponsored placement.
Surface Area
Lastly, Google is making moves to expand its surface area beyond its web dominance. As we recently examined, AI Mode is now tied into your apps, so that Google’s brand of agentic AI can automate app-based tasks for you. For Google, this means that it has wedged itself into your transactional life.
or as we wrote recently:
The example Google offers is planning a barbecue. Users can use AI Mode to create a grocery list – something they might have previously done on AI Mode. But where things extend to the next level is connecting one’s Instacart account to automatically populate a shopping cart and transact on the fly.
Beyond UX and convenience, that last part of the process is what Google is salivating over. By owning the user interaction for the full funnel, Google positions itself as a measurable source of tangible local business revenue… which answers the persistent question of how it will monetize AI as it disrupts itself.
So if we follow the money and understand’s Google’s north star in the AI era, we can triangulate where it might go next. Expect this theme – Google AI planting itself in more places and that elevate its inference capabilities – to persist. And given the pace of competition in AI search, expect it to do so rapidly.
