After going through one of the most unprecedented holiday seasons on record in 2020, consumers are ready to get back to family gatherings, in-store shopping, and some good old fashion holiday fun. While this season will certainly drive an increase in holiday-related activities and spending, brands, including toy manufacturers such as Mattel and Funko, have been warning about ongoing supply-chain disruptions and shipping delays which will make this season anything but normal. And although increasing vaccination rates and a steady decline in COVID cases are boosting consumer confidence, shoppers will continue to be cautious by seeking blended online and in-store experiences, with digital-first behaviors like curbside pickup and buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS).

The good news for marketers is that holiday sales are forecasted to trend upwards this year despite shifting behaviors and uncertainty surrounding product availability. Specifically, 2021 holiday retail sales are expected to rise 2.7% to $1.093 trillion, with brick-and-mortar increasing 0.9% to $885.99 billion and eCommerce climbing 11.3% to $206.88 billion (eMarketer). Cyber Monday and Black Friday eCommerce sales are also forecasted to surpass $10 billion this year.

For brands to successfully influence a giving spirit among their customers this holiday season, they will need to deploy flexible digital solutions that can be optimized across multiple media channels. This will allow them to swiftly respond to changing consumers’ needs and fluctuating inventory levels in real-time. Equally important will be the ability to find and reach last-minute shoppers before the traditional end-of-year marketing blitz, which represents over 15% of holiday shoppers each year.

Here are four essential shopping trends that marketers will need to plan for this holiday season.

1. An earlier start to holiday shopping is already here

This year’s holiday season will drive consumers to shop earlier than ever. Brands including Target, Amazon, Pottery Barn, and Sephora began pitching holiday deals to customers this month in the hopes of offsetting any major delays as the big day gets closer. Not only will people buy early to make sure they are able to purchase items on the top of their holiday wish lists, but most industry experts agree that the timeframe for last-minute shopping and product availability leading up to the end of December will both be influx.

57% of consumers plan to shop earlier compared to 2020. The combination of pent-up demand, higher eCommerce activity, and shifting sale dates from big retailers mean holiday shopping is already in full swing. Last year retail sales were up 10.6 percent in October, according to the NRF.

With the current issues that brands and retailers are facing in terms of potential inventory shortages, however, holiday shoppers will need to start their shopping much earlier. While many consumers wait for Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals, shoppers will need to secure their stocking stuffers and stockpile gifts as early as this month.

2. Last-minute shoppers still represent a significant portion of holiday spending

No matter how early consumers begin their holiday shopping, there will always be those who wait till the last minute. Last year, the week before Christmas drove the highest weekly spike in visitation to retail stores, up 42% for the week compared to total Q4. An estimated 10% of U.S. shoppers wait until the week before Christmas to complete their shopping. In these final days, shoppers have likely missed shipping cut-offs, driving online or hybrid shoppers in-store to purchase last-minute gifts.

While holiday shopping begins as early as October, brands should still make sure they have a strategy to reach last-minute shoppers. 41% of shoppers in 2020 said they usually start shopping sometime in December, with 10% of those shoppers waiting until the week before Christmas, including Christmas Eve.

3. Hybrid shoppers are here to stay, making your omnichannel marketing strategy more important than ever

As a result of store closures in 2020, a significant amount of holiday shopping moved online. While eCommerce sales have continuously grown and are expected to increase 11-15% this holiday, many consumers have adopted a hybrid shopping approach blending online research and purchases in-store.

According to Think With Google, while 70% of people surveyed said that their shopping experience would involve online touchpoints, only 14% of U.S. shoppers say that they will not be shopping in-store this holiday season. An important reminder for marketers that the slice of shoppers who are online-only shoppers is still just a sliver compared to in-store only and hybrid shoppers. As a result, getting people in stores will be the main charge for marketers.

Growing concerns surrounding the COVID variants have the potential to make some consumers take a more cautious approach to the upcoming holiday shopping season. This means that brands will need to continue offering flexible shopping options such as curbside pickup to accommodate health and safety concerns and reach their customers with personalized messages that align with the way they want to buy.

Offline behavioral data can help retailers understand brand preferences among their customers and how much time they are spending with competitors. These strategic insights can guide how and when brands spend their marketing budgets during what is likely to be a flux holiday season.

4. Consumers are demanding a higher level of personalization so don’t waste impressions on arbitrary engagement

Creating a more customer-centric experience is a top priority for digital marketers across industries, from Retail to Travel & Hospitality. In fact, 66% of consumers say encountering content that isn’t personalized would stop them from making a purchase. The benefits of personalization extend well beyond cross-sells and up-sells on a brand’s eCommerce site — and curbside pickup represents a ripe opportunity to reach existing customers with highly relevant offers, converting self-service pick-up stops into additional store purchases.

For example, based on customer history and store pick-up location, retailers can deliver in-store coupons for items that complement the order. Such offers can be delivered to mobile devices or included in BOPIS packaging. As well, enticing consumers with invitations to attend store events or try in-store services that can help drive foot traffic to stores. Real-time shopping alerts can also support efforts by highlighting items of interest that are in low supply on the store shelves, or new items in the customer’s preferred size or style that have just arrived in-store.

Time will tell how the upcoming holiday season will go. Will shoppers be excited to return to stores or will they continue to enjoy the convenience of online for much of their holiday shopping? What channels will they flock to and what features will earn their business?

One thing that is for certain is that planning starts way before the season officially kicks off. Armed with the right data, you can be ready to deck the halls with easily adaptable marketing campaigns to meet whatever shopping scenarios are thrown your way.