There’s new evidence this week that ChatGPT is becoming a more substantial source of referral traffic for eCommerce. This is being seen from the likes of Walmart, Target, Etsy, and eBay, which calms a growing disdain around AI search engines eroding traffic to websites, a la zero-click search.
Specifically, the latest data come from Similarweb, which reports that one in five Walmart referral clicks in August came from ChatGPT. That’s 20 percent for anyone counting, which is notably up from 15 percent in July. The same 20 percent is seen at Etsy, while Target sees 15 percent and eBay, 10 percent.
One qualifying question that we have is if ChatGPT referral traffic is converting at greater levels, or spending more on a per-basket level – a question of intent. That would introduce a quality over quantity discussion, and a more complicated formula about the weighted impact of ChatGPT vs. other sources.
Another question is if ChatGPT will trend towards zero-click search. It currently emphasizes citations as a means to boost the credibility of its AI answers and results. But if it – like Google has done historically – tries to keep visitors on its own domain through transactional functionality, that could be a different story.
In fact, that’s Amazon’s fear, which can be seen in its moves so far. Though ChatGPT can giveth, it could someday taketh away, and Amazon knows it. For that reason, and to protect its $56 billion ad business, Amazon has diverged from the players above by blocking ChatGPT from indexing its domain.
Prevailing Gripe
Back to the broader concerns about zero-click search, it looms over all the above moves. And there’s historical precedent, as noted, in Google doing just that. There’s a sort of bait & switch where Google trades traffic for access to content/data traffic… then gradually renegs the former, at least to a degree.
For those unfamiliar, one of the prevailing gripes in the AI era is from website owners and publishers who bemoan traffic declines inflicted by AI apps and engines. This accelerates an existing zero-click search trend wherein comprehensive SERPs and AI overviews preempt the need to click to find out more.
Google has gotten years of grief for this phenomenon as SERPs increasingly provide more depth and Knowledge-Graph content. Now, AI accelerates the trend as comprehensive answers to questions – though they’re appended by citations and relevant links to sources – are increasingly sufficient.
The recent loss of traffic has been evident through a chorus of backlash from major publishers in the news media and other verticals. Meanwhile, pundits and pragmatists echo a “can’t beat ’em, so join ’em” narrative in espousing the still-developing art of AI SEO or generative engine optimization (GEO).
Either way, the zero-click trend is here to stay. Fortunately, citations are still a key part of the mix. Because AI engines are working against some trust issues. Citations (with links of course) help ground their answers in a degree of validity. So Walmart et al can continue enjoying referral traffic, for now.
