Google continues to face headwinds in 2024. Besides challenges to its search market share from AI players like ChatGPT (another story), it’s facing ample regulatory scrutiny. The latest shot fired, as you’ve likely heard by now, is the ruling in the DOJ case against Google that it’s indeed a monopoly.
As part of the saga, the DOJ has recommended to the court that Google spin off the Chrome browser – a source of its monopolistic behavior, or so it’s argued. Google’s response is due in a few days, after which the plot thickens. Meanwhile, we’re tapping insights from the Localogyverse about what it all means.
The latest figure to weigh in is Andrew Shotland. As a local SEO guru and founder & CEO of LocalSEO guide, we’re longtime fans of his insights. We had the chance to prompt Andrew for his thoughts on all this, with the full interview transcript below. Enjoy, and stay tuned for more Q&A action on this topic…
Localogy Insider: Starting basic, what are your initial reactions to the DOJ ruling on Google’s monopolistic status, and the argument that it should spin off Chrome?
Andrew Shotland: Count me among those who are not clear what spinning off Chrome gets anyone. I like the idea of Google not having it to train their data, but I don’t get what company, that is not another almost-monopoly would acquire it. And if it goes to a PE firm, wouldn’t they just turn around and sell placement to Google as the preferred search engine? And how do they rip it out of Android? I am no expert on these types of things, but it feels like the DOJ thought “Chrome generates a ton of searches. Chrome is a separate product from Google Search. Let’s just chop it off.”
Localogy Insider: Do you see it as a fair ruling when looking at what Google has assembled in its search business and its positioning with a dominant browser market share?
Andrew Shotland: The ruling that Google Search + Chrome Browser is a key part of Google’s monopoly certainly seems fair to me. If it’s obvious to my mother, it’s pretty obvious.
Localogy Insider: Do you see the spinoff eventually happening or what could prevent it? Will a new administration impact the outcome or do you see this pushing forward either way?
Andrew Shotland: I know this is a shocker, but my guess is this is totally dependent on how good Sundar is at sucking up to Trump v Musk/Andreesen/Thiel, etc. I can see Google making the case that you don’t want to rock the boat of one of America’s greatest companies. But I can also see Trump decide that he doesn’t like his Knowledge Graph and force Google to spin off Chrome and put a link to Truth Social at the top of every search result.
Localogy Insider: If Google is forced to do this, there’s some historical evidence that breaking up Google in these ways could be good for competition and consumers (but obviously not for Google). If this goes through who will be the winners and losers?
Andrew Shotland: whoever controls Chrome, at least for the time being will be able to command a lot of $ for “anchor tenancy”. That said, I think the ultimate winners will be smaller browser makers, and ultimately consumers, as I think this will unlock competition in the space. That said, the majority of browsing likely now happens on mobile – and on iOS that means Safari, even if you are using the version called “Chrome”. I don’t see Bing somehow magically benefitting from this too much. It’s going to be players like DuckDuckGo and Brave I think. And if AI companies like OpenAI, Arc, Perplexity, etc. can afford it, I can see them benefitting by creating more AI-centric browsers.
Localogy Insider: How do you see this having ripple effects on other aspects of Google’s business and product set, including search? It’s already losing search market share to places like TikTok and ChatGPT. Will its inability to use the browser to favor Google search exacerbate some of those existing headwinds?
Andrew Shotland: I don’t see how this couldn’t be at a minimum a growth-rate-throttling event for Google, mostly just due to the distraction, and the caution that such an action would breed within the organization. But TikTok and ChatGPT both have similar existential headaches to deal with too (e.g. a potential ban and a product that burns cash at an insanely high rate).
Localogy Insider: Will this impact any paid search or organic/SEO dynamics and, by association, the ecosystems that surround those areas?
Andrew Shotland: I’ll stick with SEO. To the extent a spun-off Chrome favors a different search engine, that search engine is going to get a lot more traffic so SEOs will likely have to start paying attention to it. Google also would lose the behavioral data it gets from Chrome which affects its search algorithms. So I would expect to see a fair amount of volatility over time in the search results as Google is forced to update its algorithms to compensate. That will be fun for the SEO industry to try to figure out.
Localogy Insider: How else does google use and benefit from Chrome that would be impacted if it spins off the browser?
Andrew Shotland: Instead of answering this, I am going to posit that it’s quite possible that Google spins off Chrome, Chrome defaults to a different search engine, and quickly a large percentage of Chrome users switch it back to Google. In fact, I’d give that 80 percent odds of happening, which would be a big old LOL for all of us.
