Social media continues to be a moving target. That’s partly due to the horse race among social media players to build (and copy) features to grab the most user engagement. There’s a reason it’s called the attention economy… and social media is the engine that drives it, for better or worse.
Another factor that impacts the social media competitive landscape is shifting user proclivities and herd mentality. Though network effect can drive exponential growth in user interaction – a core tenet of social graphs – it can also quickly deplete social apps if there’s a mass migration (looking at you, MySpace).
Some argue that these warning signs are evident with longstanding social networks like Facebook, though its overall usage numbers are still strong. In fairness to Facebook, a lot of that doomsday sentiment originates from anecdotal evidence when individuals stop using it, or see friends doing so.
So what do the numbers indicate to support or refute such claims – or any claims of social media market shares? One indicator is standard business metrics and company performance. On those measures, Facebook is currently flying high, given active user metrics and its stock price (more on that in a bit).
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Good News, Bad News
Another measure recently crossed our desks: third-party research that tracks time spent across social apps. And there, it’s good news and bad news for Facebook. According to eMarketer, Facebook has the greatest overall daily engagement (20 min). That compares to TikTok (18 min) and Instagram (16 min).
The bad news? Facebook scores lowest among social apps when it comes to Gen-Z engagement. Specifically, within the 18-24 age bracket (this study only tracks U.S. adults, hence the lower limit), average usage is 11 minutes per day, compared to TikTok (57 minutes) and Instagram (43 minutes).
This comes down to generational dynamics. Social media – like many behavioral habits – tends to stick to age groups that “grew up” with it. After a certain age, users are habitual and don’t seek out new apps (sort of like fashion). The question is if this is a leading indicator of Facebook’s longer-term decline.
Beyond that standard generational dynamic, another thing jumps out from these figures: the sheer quantity of minutes spent with TikTok and Instagram among Gen-Z. This is due to product design, content-targeting algorithms, and a highly-addictive feed-based interface (again, for better or worse).
Saving Grace
Of course, some of the above needs to be qualified by standard disclaimers about methodology. Though eMarketer is reputable, it should be acknowledged that these are third-party estimates, rather than first-party usage data from Meta, et al. And this is a U.S. adult sample, so it’s only a demographic segment.
Back to business metrics, Meta is flying high, including its stock price as noted. Much of this is due to its scrambling in the wake of some large-scale setbacks over the past few years. After platform-level restrictions (read iOS) on data collection, it was forced to innovate. And there, it turned to AI.
Specifically, Meta was unable to rely on device-specific signals to target content and ads. So it applied AI to its reams of first-party usage data (privacy-compliant) to come up with targeting methods that are arguably better than what it had pre-privacy restrictions (necessity is the mother of invention, etc.).
Meanwhile, another piece of foresight is evident in the above figures: Instagram. Meta’s 2012 $1 billion acquisition – which seemed excessive at the time – continues to pay dividends. As Facebook declines in some aspects, Instagram continues to be a growth engine and a saving grace for the Meta mother ship.
